The “Hype Cycle” is the jargon coined in the air by Gartner!! as an approach for graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies.
The name “hype-cycle” is very much in-line with the literal meaning i.e emphasizing and characterizing over-enthusiasm and over-excitement followed by a subsequent disappointment.
A very bright example can be by comparing the fate of the products like “Audio Cassettes, iPod and CDs ”
Who on earth would have predicted that the audio cassettes which rocked the music industries in the 80’s will be come obsolete in the late 90’s.
After, cassettes it was the CDs that took the floor, with the current trend and the technology advancement even the foundation of the CD industries have been shaken!!. In the era of high speed internet and the social networking, people have become really smart and started purchasing music and downloading it online from the online retail stores like amazon and ebay!!.
Everything has gone digital and so has the copyright and privacy act taking the music industry to the next level.
So, in a Nutshell the “hype-cycle” describes the transformation journey taken by a Thought Process and validating/challenging against the ground reality and come up with a strong concrete statement as to where we stand – is it do-able!!
This Journey has been described by Gartner as a Five Step Phase namely :
- Technology Trigger : Its more of a public demonstration, and the initial talk of the town. More like a launch of a product in the Market
- Peak of Inflated Expectation : Its the phase of over-enthusiasm in the market. The market leaders make their predictions along with the success failure statistics. The Research, Magazine and Media companies have the maximum involvement during this time.
- Trough of Disillusionment : If the expectations set in the previous phase does not match up or live upto the Technology benchmark, it looses its ground and most importantly looses its focus and media attention.
- Slope of Enlightenment : Organizations try to unleash all possible implementations, benefits and risks that can be reaped for the Technology which has become the talk of the town. Experimental Steps and PoCs are in Progress to get a clear and concrete picture.
- Plateau of Productivity : The real-time benefits of incorporating the Technology can be visualized. It can be seen a potential step to make a difference in the future. It has almost reached a very Stable and Steady State. Adoption of Technology can be seen.
Here is a brief snapshot of the different Maturity Levels provided by Gartner for describing the Hype Cycle!!
- Embryonic Stage : If the Technology though is in the primitive stage or in labs
- Emerging : If Vendors try marketing the Technology and developing PoCs
- Adolescent : Better Technology and Process understanding
- Early Mainstream : The PoCs and Pilots have been performed and it has been proved. Growing state
- Mature Mainstream : Robust Technology
- Legacy : Does not fit the new development strategies, and the cost incurred is more than the benefits that can be reaped from it
- Obsolete : It can hardly be used.
Why is Hype Cycle Important ??
It is of great importance and very helpful for the CTOs and CIOs of the companies, who foresee the Technologies which are doing good in the Market, and the areas where they can catch-up and make their presence felt before their competitors.
This also gives a good insight from a Company perspective, to align Resources and Funding if some Technology or Trend looks promising and worth adopting.
Usually the “Technology Trigger” phase is like the chat or the buzz in the air, with no concrete validating data points and implementation approach – to be precise “Just a Thought!!“.
Refer to the pdf for Hype Cycle Charts in the hype-cycle for BPM in 2010 and 2011
Reference Links :
For more Info please check-out the following links :
Please walkthrough over the HypeCycle 2011 PDF provided by Gartner, it has beautifully articulated the different touchpoints in the Graph with a holistic view of the Maturity Level and the Comanies which are already in the race.
Happy Learning!! 🙂